Thinking Inside the Box

So what I try to get at with this blog is to describe contemporaneously the "Really Big Thing" (RBT) in human endeavors.  I innately approach this RBT in a way akin to finding pieces in a puzzle, except that the puzzle changes as I am putting it together.  This is the wily effect time has on cognitive puzzling.  I submit that one needs to be, in fact, has a moral responsibility to be, a Dynamic Cognitive Puzzler (DCP).  But that's a bit of an aside.  Time changes the structure of the puzzle, and of the puzzler, in many ways.  An event (disaster, decision, happy outcome) alters and largely conditions or determines what is possible thereafter, and time has a way of cementing these events so that they cannot be undone.  An act of murder is a clear case in point.  A less clear but still relevant case is if a nation determines that taking a Cold War-like stance against another power is a good idea.  Acts of generosity, malice, stupidity, brilliance, or whatever all change the puzzle. 

Attempting to puzzle out the RBT means defining what it is and giving it contours so that you have an idea of what the puzzle looks like.  It's like looking at the picture on the cover of the box, except, of course, you want a dynamic picture of what's inside the box.  And then you have to think inside that box.  The RBT is my box, the box I invented as I wrote the first paragraph.  The picture on the outside shows me two main features (at least) of what's inside.  The first is that events are historical in nature.  The second is that the dimension of time, as a physical feature ruled by the Laws of Thermodynamics, determines these events cannot be undone.*   That my box consists of these two things is enough justification to call it RBT. 

By forming a Dynamic Cognitive Puzzle (also DCP) you give yourself a perspective on events and a frame with which to make events comprehensible.  A third bonus is that it's possible to anticipate, not to predict as such, but to anticipate what is coming. So I may, for example, see the role of energy in an economy as fundamental.  Energy has well-known Laws regarding it's nature and behavior (Thermodynamics).  Then I consider a particular historical period, say the contemporaneous industrial era, and piece together a little dynamical puzzle.  So I throw these things into the box; energy is fundamental, a fundamental feature of energy is that goes in one direction (Time's Arrow) by dissipating through heat loss (it makes sense and I can explain some other time), and then I apply it to industrial production as an historical condition.  Then I shake the box (unnecessary).

What comes out should look something like recent headlines.  Admittedly, that is a big claim and could possibly be seen as self-serving, or self-congratulatory, or some other self-thing.  But the blog I write is for the purpose of presenting and advocating a particular and clearly defined perspective.  It's a perspective that reveals what other, say mainstream or commonly held, perspectives do not reveal or do not encompass.  Take this headline sent to me by a friend:

A Critical Source of U.S. Jobs has Lost its Mojo

The headline itself isn't especially remarkable, but does point to a basic truth that losing mojo can have critical outcomes.  Inside, however, is an astonishing fact that surprised me some but is shocking in what it implies.  It is this:  If one excludes all the jobs created from the fracking boom since 2007, U.S. job growth is negative.  NEGATIVE!  Here's the chart:

It means that the only reason the U.S. is outperforming other advanced economies like Japan and Europe post-crisis is because we have enough shale oil around which to form a Fed-fueled financial bubble to make the overall U.S. numbers look comparatively good.  It's not really our freedom, or superior economic policies, or the go get 'em attitude that makes U.S. performance better.  Or, to be less strident, the particular DCP of a person that has these causal first principles inside might be up for reconsideration.  These no longer serve as an effective means by which to judge the reality this way of thinking purports to describe. 

What this chart also tells me is that there is no other New Big Thing (NBT) coming out of the American economy.  This fits inside my box because, even if the shale revolution has produced jobs, it is too costly in energetic and financial terms to leave anything meaningful for the rest of the economy to use.  In fact, it is probably more likely to be draining mojo from the rest of the economy by acting as a paper factory.

This next is another exhibit for how an outcome, even if not predicted, is not surprising if you have an energy perspective.  The story is about mishedging the bet on future oil prices, and that it is coming back to haunt new producers of shale oil. 

Oil-Led Slump Spurring Fastest Investor Exit Since 2007

This fits the finance-is-connected-to-the-hip-of-oil story that makes this about more than just oil.  It is a systemic risk story once it combines with the global ponzi finance story.  I anticipate that it will erode the credibility of the America-is-the-lone-superpower story, and will actually erode the credibility of America as a superpower as it shakes out.

All that I've typed out so far in a purposely roundabout way has hopefully been a purposeful sort of roundabout.  Perspective is essential in comprehending current events.  The quality of your Dynamic Cognitive Puzzle box has to be maintained, upgraded, and honestly assessed regarding it's effectiveness.  It's not enough to say things are changing.  It's not enough to fit events into what you already think.  Getting a reasonable understanding of the nature of the change that's accurate is both possible and essential.  And fun.  Besides, what else are you gonna do?






*This has two considerations.  The first is that, truly, there are no take-backs.  If you apologize to someone for calling him/her an idiot, it still happened.  The second is the implication that there is no time travel, at least in the fun sci-fi way.  Time's Arrow goes in one direction.