The Growing Context Over Ukraine

So I had been writing a rather longish Contribution to the blaboshpere when I realized that I needed to write one in between.   The struggle before me is to craft this so that it grooves with the next topic, which is to place the current U.S.-Russia imbroglio into a wider point on wise ape behavior generally.

I left off promising to dig a little further into Vladimir Putin's "Iron Curtain" speech.  I said we should view Putin's words as a true and truthful statement about what he sees happening in the world and what he thinks should be done about it.  I think he truly wants to avoid war with the United States, for starters, and his mentioning it shows his thinking about the possibility is advanced.  I think his statements on the deterioration of the world order is accurately couched in terms of American unilateralism opportunistically ignoring or cynically enforcing rules when it suits it's interests.  Lastly, he charges that since the end of the Cold War America has been trying to reshape the world in it's image and has trampled on the principle of sovereignty in the process.  I can accept this, though sovereignty has always been on a sliding scale depending on how powerful you are. 

Be that as it may, Putin is observing the deterioration of the global order through his own eyes.  Now, the "forces of chaos" are at his doorstep strangling his country with heavy duty economic sanctions and military encirclement.  Of course, the military encirclement has been ongoing with the expansion of NATO and this, coupled with the "shock therapy" economic prescription, certainly wounded the ego of the Russian ruling class, but it's hard to see that as the real or ultimate cause of the Ukraine crisis.  This leads me to another point Putin makes, one that has more of the politicians touch, and that is when he characterizes Russia's own interests and behavior.

The allegations and statements that Russia is trying to establish some sort of empire, encroaching on the sovereignty of its neighbors, are groundless. Russia does not need any kind of special, exclusive place in the world – I want to emphasize this. While respecting the interests of others, we simply want for our own interests to be taken into account and for our position to be respected.


This is the bugaboo right here.  The question of Russia's character having been transformed from the nation hated by it's neighbors, many of whom were more than happy to join NATO, into a peaceful, respectful regional cohabitor is a little too rich.  That Russia is a mafioso-style autocratic oligarchy presented cynically as a parliamentary republic doesn't allow for much confidence from those in the liberal West.  On top of that, it might be a matter of opinion, but one informed by some history, that Russia does indeed consider itself to be rather special.  And, in it's way, it certainly holds a singular spot in geopolitics.  After all, there aren't a whole lot of recently-made-former superpowers hanging around the global scene.  Putin might be a rough analog to Charles de Gaulle, which, to my mind, would be innocent enough.

Another element of Russia's unique position is it's mixed bag of high-tech savvy coupled with lots of poverty, all stirred in with a mishmash of modern and unmodern social attitudes.  You could say, not too simplistically, that Russia is a traditional society infused with a heavy dose of scientific and technological culture.  At the same time, Russia has always been skeptical of the political and commercial openness which sprang from the Western Enlightenment ideals of liberalism.  As a result, Russia has been regarded throughout history as backward by the West.  This teleological view may be correct on it's own terms but teleology is itself a flawed Enlightenment notion.  In other words, Russians don't share the view that history is necessarily going anywhere.  That Communism shares this belief with capitalism doesn't mean Russians as a whole adopted it.  If anything, it made them more wary of the promises of teleology.  By contrast, Americans belief in the direction of progress is a powerful rationale for it's expansionary practices which have at last arrived at the Russian border.

From where I'm sitting, the world is not big enough for both Russia and the United States.  One, or both, has to change in order for the two to coexist.  This sounds like the revisitation of the Cold War but that's a silly analogy.  The Cold War is more usefully understood as representing a particular era of competing ideologies and systems contained by MAD.  What we see today is a more conventional interstate conflict between a hegemon and an unsubdued lesser power.  But "conventional" ways of looking at the present are bound to be limited because the natural limits to growth on a finite planet is a new phenomenon, at least at this scale.  So it is best to view this conflict as another manifestation of the global zero sum game.  Putin, I believe, rightly understands that the growth of the West comes automatically at Russia's expense.  Russia would lose it's natural wealth and gain little in return if he were to allow global capital to rampage through the Russian hinterland.  Putin wants to rampage it on his own terms.

It's hard to say what will happen over Ukraine.  Personally, I think the U.S. should allow the break-up of Ukraine and let Russia annex the Russian speaking parts of it.  Of course, this has it's own serious difficulties, but I'm not going to go into that because a larger context needs to be sketched out, which will constitute the next post.  I'll end with one last insight at the beginning of Putin's speech that I think is most important to remember:

As we analyze today’s situation, let us not forget history’s lessons. First of all, changes in the world order – and what we are seeing today are events on this scale – have usually been accompanied by if not global war and conflict, then by chains of intensive local-level conflicts.

History is messy and often tragic.  Misapplying history and misreading the present is a real danger at any time, but especially at times of "change".  Change in this context might just be a synonym for upheaval.  The context in which events are occurring needs to be well and deeply conceived.  Without this the wise ape simply gropes blindfolded in the dark in a room with moving furniture.  To lift the blindfold, flip on the light, and nail down the furniture requires an innovative new approach, one that accounts for and encompasses all the confusing phenomena we see around us.  The best hope for that is the biophysical perspective.