The trend I'm talking about is the historical emergence of a multipolar geopolitical arrangement in which the United States is no longer the lone superpower but instead is a single great power among several. Or something along those lines. This outcome would be the logical outcome of the post-war trend of relative decline of the share of total power in the world and is not a radical notion for security brains to think about. Nothing that has happened since WWII to appreciably interrupt the slow and steady drop of American power. Today might be a good day to consider that we are in this new multipolar world, or that it is rapidly dawning, and that the U.S. maybe...possibly should learn to accept it.
Dmitry Orlov posted on his ClubOrlov blog a recent speech by Vladimir Putin at the Valdai Conference in Sochi, Russia. Orlov says this is the most important speech since the "Iron Curtain" speech given by Churchill in 1946. Time will tell if this is true or not, but it is certainly of the same rhetorical species in that it draws a clear line of what Russia is willing to do and not do vis a vis the United States. A key difference is Putin is more conciliatory. It's actually a good speech, a powerful speech which speaks of many basic principles in a substantive way. Whatever one's opinion is of Putin, (he lies, of course,) but that in itself is not unusual. I think it's best to view this speech as a true statement of Putin's, and Russia's, conviction to resist the U.S. and a truthful statement about how he sees the world right now and what he himself would like to see.
Rather than summarize the speech myself I'll post the main points as they are on ClubOrlov. The entire speech is at the end of the blog post.
1. Russia will no longer play games and engage in back-room negotiations over trifles. But Russia is prepared for serious conversations and agreements, if these are conducive to collective security, are based on fairness and take into account the interests of each side.
2. All systems of global collective security now lie in ruins. There are no longer any international security guarantees at all. And the entity that destroyed them has a name: The United States of America.
3. The builders of the New World Order have failed, having built a sand castle. Whether or not a new world order of any sort is to be built is not just Russia's decision, but it is a decision that will not be made without Russia.
4. Russia favors a conservative approach to introducing innovations into the social order, but is not opposed to investigating and discussing such innovations, to see if introducing any of them might be justified.
5. Russia has no intention of going fishing in the murky waters created by America's ever-expanding “empire of chaos,” and has no interest in building a new empire of her own (this is unnecessary; Russia's challenges lie in developing her already vast territory). Neither is Russia willing to act as a savior of the world, as she had in the past.
6. Russia will not attempt to reformat the world in her own image, but neither will she allow anyone to reformat her in their image. Russia will not close herself off from the world, but anyone who tries to close her off from the world will be sure to reap a whirlwind.
7. Russia does not wish for the chaos to spread, does not want war, and has no intention of starting one. However, today Russia sees the outbreak of global war as almost inevitable, is prepared for it, and is continuing to prepare for it. Russia does not war—nor does she fear it.
8. Russia does not intend to take an active role in thwarting those who are still attempting to construct their New World Order—until their efforts start to impinge on Russia's key interests. Russia would prefer to stand by and watch them give themselves as many lumps as their poor heads can take. But those who manage to drag Russia into this process, through disregard for her interests, will be taught the true meaning of pain.
9. In her external, and, even more so, internal politics, Russia's power will rely not on the elites and their back-room dealing, but on the will of the people.
To these nine points I would like to add a tenth:
10. There is still a chance to construct a new world order that will avoid a world war. This new world order must of necessity include the United States—but can only do so on the same terms as everyone else: subject to international law and international agreements; refraining from all unilateral action; in full respect of the sovereignty of other nations.
To sum it all up: play-time is over. Children, put away your toys. Now is the time for the adults to make decisions. Russia is ready for this; is the world?
Clearly this is from a Russian perspective but that doesn't justify dismissing it as simple posturing. That's the job of American media. The language in Putin's speech was certainly more diplomatic than this summary but the summary seems faithful to the original. I would encourage you to read the speech in full.
Russia's position reminds me of a scene from a movie I saw long ago. In this clip is a description of a kind of deterrence employed by smaller nations throughout history.
Russia of course has the nuclear deterrent, but Putin is pointing to this more limited kind of deterrent, one he feels Russia is capable of fulfilling. Maybe it's become a habit for Americans to assume that a show of force is enough to cow nations into complicity but obviously this has not worked in the case of Russia. The question is how much can they make it hurt and how much hurt is the U.S. willing to take.
Americans have been fed a buffet of idiotic morsels regarding the character of Vladimir Putin. I am not in the habit of defending the grim man whose smile muscles have atrophied, but he is not Joseph Stalin or Adolf Hitler. Such stupid statements are purely for American consumption whose knowledge is of a limited scope and can't think of possibilities beyond good and evil. But even serious people have to pause for a bit to consider what is at stake for the either side in this. I've written about this before in light of diminishing returns. Put that into the context of growing global chaos, which Putin describes in some detail, and it's easy to see what's going on. He makes this statement about a third of the way through:
We sometimes get the impression that our colleagues and friends[in the West] are constantly fighting the consequences of their own policies, throw all their effort into addressing the risks they themselves have created, and pay an ever-greater price.
Is that a reasonable assessment to make about American foreign policy over the past couple of decades? One just has to think the word "Iraq" to understand it. But it goes well beyond just Iraq and Putin lists several charges against the "friends and partners" in the West that have set the world on the path to chaos. It's this Americans should examine and think clearly about the magnitude of this diminishing return.
Because someday, the diminishing returns will shift to negative returns. Actually, it is well past that point. Adding Russia to this mix of expensive endeavors with no return will have a cost directly felt by Americans because Russia is not in the same league as Iraq, or Syria, or even Iran. And the benefit is...the liberation of Ukraine? But this is an absurdity. It goes much deeper than this and it is built into the system of capital and it's insatiable demand for credit and opening markets for multinational corporations.
This, however, will require another post. I'll also consider the merit/demerit of other charges made by Putin.
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